Phenological Calendar

Predicting Crop Growth Stages Using Weather, GDD Models, and 10 Years of Historical Data

The Phenological Calendar is a cornerstone of Carbonleap. It predicts when each major growth stage of a crop will occur, helps growers understand where their fields are in the seasonal cycle, and provides insight into how fast or slow crops are developing compared to expectations.

This model is built using hyperlocal weather, real-time GDD, and 10 years of historical climate data specific to your farm.

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What the Phenological Calendar Shows

The calendar displays:

• Predicted growth stages for the crop

• Actual growth stages (once the user updates them)

• Daily GDD accumulation

• Forecasted 7-day GDD growth

• GDD thresholds required to transition between stages

These elements give a complete view of crop development — past, present, and expected.

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Powered by 10 Years of Local Weather Data

Carbonleap analyzes a decade of historical climate patterns around your farm. This allows the system to:

• Estimate typical GDD accumulation for each period of the season

• Predict expected dates for each phenological stage

• Compare current development speed with historical norms

Each farm receives a hyperlocal model, not a generic regional one.

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How GDD (Growing Degree Days) Works

GDD is a measure of heat accumulation — essentially how much warmth the crop has received to grow. Crops need a certain amount of accumulated heat to reach each growth stage.

The Phenological Calendar includes two growth indicators:

1. Actual Daily GDD — calculated from real weather data as the season progresses

2. Forecasted 7-Day GDD — shows expected accumulation based on a 7-day weather forecast

This dual indicator helps growers anticipate how quickly crops are advancing.

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Growth Stage Thresholds

Each stage in the crop model has a specific GDD threshold, meaning:

• Once accumulated GDD passes that threshold

• The crop is expected to transition to the next stage

This is updated continuously throughout the season.

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Predicted vs. Actual Growth Stages

The calendar starts with predicted dates for each stage at the beginning of the season.

However, growers can also enter actual dates for when a stage occurred. When this happens:

• The model recalculates expected future stages

• Forecasts adjust based on real-world observations

• The calendar becomes more accurate as the season progresses

The calendar is accessible through:

• Monitor Farm

• Settings → Farm Management → Configuration Columns (detailed view)

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What Growers Can Use the Calendar For

The phenological calendar helps answer questions such as:

• Are my crops ahead or behind schedule this year?

• When should I expect key growth events (flowering, fruit set, ripening)?

• How fast is the crop developing compared to normal seasons?

• How much heat will accumulate in the next week?

• Is a heatwave or cold period likely to accelerate or slow development?

Understanding crop timing helps plan labor, irrigation, pest control, fertilizer, and harvest.

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Example Use Cases

Early in the season

Confirm whether emergence or canopy development is on track.

Mid-season

Assess the timing of sensitive stages like flowering or fruit set.

Late season

Predict ripening windows or harvest timing.

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A Dynamic, Always-Updating Model

The calendar:

• Updates daily with new weather d